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الرٌد الإيراني على إسرائيل وحسابات المعادلة الإقليمية


بقلم : البراق شادي عبد السلام

النظام الإقليمي في الشرق الاوسط هو اليوم أمام مشهد جيوسياسي جديد ترسمه إيران في المنطقة لأول مرة منذ حرب الثماني السنوات بين نظام الولي الفقيه في طهران و نظام البعث في بغداد ، الضربة الإيرانية تأتي اليوم بعد سلسلة من العمليات النوعية التي قام بها جهاز الموساد و الجيش الإسرائيلي ضد المصالح الإيرانية في الشرق الأوسط منذ عقود خلت إبتداءا من تحييد قيادات فاعلة في الحرس الثوري و الميليشيات التابعة له في المنطقة و إنتهاءا بإستهداف مبنى ديبلوماسي إيراني في دمشق و إغتيال قيادات رفيعة في الحرس الثوري الإيراني ، قبل التطرق لهذا التصعيد الخطير و تأثيراته على الوضع الجيوسياسي في الشرق الأوسط و العالم ، علينا أن نتفق أن الشرق الأوسط بعد السابع من أكتوبر 2023 ليس هو الشرق الاوسط ما بعد الثالث عشر من أبريل 2024 ، فالعديد من المياه تجري تحت الجسر و صورة إسرائيل المستهدفة من طرف حركة حماس لطختها الدماء الغزيرة التي أريقت في قطاع غزة بعد العمليات الدموية التي نفذتها القوات الإسرائيلية في حق المدنيين العزل من الأطفال و النساء و المصابين و الجرحى و تراجع حجم التعاطف الدولي مع أسطورة شعب إسرائيل المظلوم و المحاصر من طرف شعوب تريد إلقاءه في البحر كما في “الرواية الإسرائيلية ” التي لم يعد يصدقها أحد أكثر من أي وقت مضى ، فإسرائيل في هذه اللحظة هي في حاجة إلى إعادة توحيد العالم” الغربي “حول مظلوميتها التاريخية بإعتبارها
” الواحة ” الوحيدة للسلام و الديمقراطية و حقوق الإنسان المحاصرة من طرف شعوب الشرق الأوسط المعادية للسامية .

إيران هي الأخرى في حاجة ماسة إلى إعادة توحيد ساحات المقاومة و الحفاظ على عنصر التناغم المطلوب لنجاح عمليات الميليشيات التابعة لطهران ضد إسرائيل و الحرص على توافقها مع المصالح العليا لإيران و ذلك لن يتم إلا بإسترجاع ثقة المنظمات و الميليشيات الشيعية الموازية للحرس الثوري الإيراني و في قدرة نظام الولي الفقيه على إدارة المواجهة الشاملة مع إسرائيل و حلفاءها بعد عقود من حروب الظل في مختلف مناطق الشرق الأوسط و أيضا في قدرة الحرس الثوري على تقديم طوق النجاة في الوقت المناسب في حالة المواجهة المباشرة مع العدو و هنا يحق لنا طرح السؤال المحوري : ما علاقة التصعيد الإيراني مع الواقع الميداني العسكري على الارض في قطاع غزة !؟

النظام الإيراني كعراب لمحور المقاومة أصبح مطالبا اليوم بتنفيذ وعوده لإنقاذ حركة حماس من خطر التشظي و التفكك و تلاشي قدراتها القتالية يوما عن يوم بسبب الحصار الإسرائيلي لجنوب القطاع و الهزائم التي حصدتها وحداتها القتالية بعد ستة أشهر من حرب الشوارع في مختلف مناطق غزة توجته إسرائيل بإستهداف مباشر لعائلة رئيس المكتب السياسي لمنظمة حماس إسماعيل أبو هنية و هو إستهداف بدلالات متعددة و لايمكن فصله عن إستهداف مبنى القنصلية الإيرانية في دمشق و بالتالي فالوضع الميداني في القطاع ليس في صالح محور المقاومة و إيران غير مستعدة لخسارة منطقة تماس جيوسياسي لها أهميتها في جنوب إسرائيل قد ينتهي وجود حماس فيها بسيناريو شبيه لخروج المقاومة الفلسطينية بقيادة ياسر عرفات إلى المنافي في اليمن و سوريا و تونس في 30 غشت 1982 بعد الإجتياح الإسرائيلي لدولة لبنان و إحتلال بيروت في نفس السنة بقيادة إرييل شارون و هو نفس الوضع الذي قد نشهده مرة أخرى في قطاع غزة لكن بواقع جيوسياسي جديد .

خروج إيران من منطقة الظل و فتح أبواب المواجهة الشاملة مع إسرائيل لم يكن ليحدث إلا بتجاوز الموساد للخطوط الحمراء كما أكد رئيس هيئة الأركان الإيرانية اللواء محمد باقري ، الضربة الإيرانية كان الهدف المعلن عنها هو كسر قواعد الإشتباك التقليدية بين إسرائيل و محيطها الإقليمي و محاولة فرض معادلة ردع جديدة على المستوى الإقليمي في ظل وضع جيوسياسي يطبعه التعقيد و تداخل المصالح بين كبار اللاعبين في منطقة الشرق الأوسط ،و لأول مرة في تاريخ المواجهة الإيرانية الإسرائيلية يتم إستهداف مباشر للعمق الإسرائيلي إنطلاقا من قواعد عسكرية داخل إيران بدل إستخدام البنادق المأجورة للميليشيات الإيرانية التابعة للحرس الثوري في العراق و سوريا و لبنان و اليمن أو قطاع غزة ، طوال عقود من المواجهة المفتوحة بشكل غير مباشر بين إسرائيل و إيران و بشكل أدق الموساد و الحرس الثوري لم يتم تجاوز الخطوط الواضحة لقواعد الإشتباك و حتى حدث تحييد الجنرال قاسم سليماني عراب ” ميليشيات إيران ” في الشرق الأوسط و منسق عمليات الحرس الثوري في العالم كان بقرار أمريكي و بأدوات أمريكية رغم كل التقارير التي روجها الإعلام التابع لمحور المقاومة بأن المعلومات الدقيقة حول تحركات قاسم سليماني تعود لعناصر من الموساد .

قواعد الإشتباك التقليدية في الشرق الأوسط حددتها سابقا المصالح الإقتصادية و الجيوسياسية و كذا الحسابات الداخلية لكل طرف فاعل في مسرح الشرق الأوسط حيث هنا نسجل تطورا في الموقف الإيراني و إنتقاله من لغة التهديد و الوعيد و الخطابات الإنشائية و الحملات الإعلامية و البروباغندا و إستهداف المصالح الإقتصادية بإختطاف السفن و أعمال القرصنة البحرية و تبادل القذائف الصاروخية في جنوب لبنان بإستخدام وكلاء حرب كميليشيا الحوثي في اليمن و ميليشيا حزب الله في لبنان إلى الحرب المباشرة مع إسرائيل بما تحمله من مخاطر كبرى على الأمن الإقليمي و العالمي .

اليوم مسرح الشرق الأوسط مقبل على حرب إقليمية كبرى قد تهدد الأمن الدولي لما تشكله منطقة الشرق الأوسط من أهمية جيوسياسية و إقتصادية لمختلف القوى الفاعلة في السياسة الدولية و كما هو معروف الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية لن تترك إسرائيل وحدها في مواجهة الصواريخ الإسرائيلية ، و لن تترك الممرات المائية في الخليج العربي و البحر الأحمر لتتحول إلى أوراق ضغط في يد نظام الملالي من أجل إستخدامها لفرض واقع عسكري يخدم مصالح طهران و حلفاءها ، غير أن الأكيد انه في حالة إشتعال هذه الحرب فإن إيران ستسعى جاهدة لتوسيع نطاقها بتحريك قطع الدومينو المنتشرة في مختلف أنحاء العالم من ميليشيات إرهابية و حركات إنفصالية التابعة بشكل مباشر أو غير مباشر للحرس الثوري و بشكل خاص فيلق القدس الذي يعتبر النواة الصلبة التي تنفذ بها إيران إستراتيجياتها الإقليمية ، بهدف تخفيف الضغظ الهجومي على قواعدها في داخل إيران و تشتيت القدرات الهجومية لمحور إسرائيل و حلفاءها .
و إيران قد أرسلت رسالة واضحة إلى محيطها الإقليمي قبل إطلاق المسيرات الإيرانية لإستهداف العمق الإسرائيلي بقرصنة سفينة شحن تابعة لرجل أعمال إسرائيلي في مضيق هرمز في إشارة إلى إستعدادها لتحويل المضيق الأستراتيجي إلى منطقة قرصنة بحرية على شاكلة مضيق باب المندب في جنوب البحر الأحمر .

اليوم العالم يترقب الرد الإسرائيلي على الضربة الجوية الإيرانية التي كسرت كبرياء إسرائيل و أنهت بشكل نهائي معادلة غير معلن عليها تلتزم فيها إيران بعدم المخاطرة بإستهداف عمق إسرائيل إنطلاقا من قواعد عسكرية في قلب إيران و لتقدير موقف متناسب لطبيعة الهجوم الإسرائيلي و شكله و حدوده لكن الأكيد ان صانع القرار الإستراتيجي في تل أبيب سيكون أمامه خيار وحيد بشن “عملية جراحية هجومية واسعة النطاق ” في إيران و مناطق توزع الميليشيات الإيرانية في الشرق الأوسط باستخدام سلاح الطيران و المسيرات وقوات العمليات الخاصة لتنفيذ غارات دقيقة وموجهة للأهداف والبنية التحتية ذات القيمة العالية لإيران و بشكل خاص إستهداف البنية التحتية الخاصة بالبرنامج النووي العسكري الإيراني مع العمل على عدم إستهداف البنية التحتية المدنية الضرورية لإستئناف حياة طبيعية مما يجعل النظام يفكر كثيرا في حجم الخسائر الممكنة في في حالة إختياره التصعيد الإقليمي ،مما يقلّص بشكل كبير فرص اختيار إيران لإستراتيجية الرد الشامل .
فيما يخص الرد الإيراني المرتقب فهناك عدة عوامل لتقدير الرد الإيراني على الرد الإسرائيلي الذي ينتظره العالم ، الأول يتعلق بالجهة المهاجمة و هنا نطرح التساؤل المشروع هل من المرتقب حدوث هجوم إسرائيلي بدون دعم أمريكي أو هجوم مشترك بين إسرائيل و حلفاءها و بشكل خاص امريكا و قد تابعنا جميعا إنخراط القوات الامريكية و البريطانية في عملية الصد الإستراتيجي للمسيرات الإيرانية في عملية الثالث عشر من أبريل في إشارة واضحة إلى إستعداد الجيش الإمريكي الكامل للمشاركة في الحفاظ على الأمن القومي الإسرائيلي .

العامل الثاني متعلق بأهداف الهجوم الإسرائيلي و الأمريكي و هل الهدف منه هو إضعاف مقومات النظام و الحد من القدرات التشغيلية للقوة الصاروخية الإيرانية و ضرب البنية التحتية للجيش الإيراني أو الهدف سيكون عملية تطهير شامل في العاصمة طهران بتفكيك بنية النظام بعد سلسلة من الغارات الجوية على شاكلة عمليات عاصفة الصحراء أو درع الصحراء و فتح ممرات آمنة للقوى المعارضة من إجل إستلام السلطة في ظل الغليان الشعبي ببن مختلف فئات الشعب الإيراني بعد فشل الثورة في تحقيق التنمية الموعودة و تبديد ثروات الشعب الإيراني في سياسات التسليح و تمويل الحركات و الميليشيات الطائفية و الإنفصالية في مختلف انحاء العالم الإسلامي .

لكن ما يمكن التأكيد عليه هو أن حسابات الداخل الامريكي و الإسرائيلي قد تستبعد هجوما واسع النطاق على إيران في الوقت الراهن و المؤكد أن تستأنف إسرائيل بدعم تكتيكي أمريكي في إطار التنسيق الأمني و العسكري بين الأجهزة الإستخباراتية عملياتها النوعية و العودة إلى المطاردات الأمنية في الساحات المستباحة أمام الجيش الإسرائيلي كسوريا و لبنان و قطاع غزة بإستهداف شخصيات بارزة في النظام و تقليم أظافر الميليشيات الإيرانية المنتشرة في مختلف مناطق الشرق الأوسط و بشكل خاص مضيق باب المندب الذي أصبح هدف تطهيره و إفتكاك سيطرة جماعة الحوثي على مفاصله مطلبا إقليميا لنزع فتيل التصعيد الإقليمي الذي قد يتحول إلى مواجهة شاملة قد تدخل العالم في آتون حرب عالمية ثالثة .

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