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مأزق الانتخابات الرئاسية في تشاد

محمد تورشين

تعيش العاصمة التشادية “انجمينا ” حالة من التوتر والاحتقان بعد مقتل زعيم الحزب الاشتراكي يايا ديلو ، بعد أن اتهمته قوات الأمن القومي بالهجوم عليها ومحاولة اغتيال رئيس المحكمة الدستورية ، فضلا عن اعتقال الجنرال سيلي ديبي إيتنو .
منذ أن تولي محمد إدريس ديبي رئاسة المجلس الانتقالي الحاكم في ابريل 2021 عاشت تشاد حالة من الاضطرابات السياسية والعسكرية ، حيث نشطت جبهة الوفاق من أجل التغيير بشكل ملحوظ في مساحة واسعة ، لاسيما في شمال تشاد مستفيدة من تواجدها في ليبيا ، وأعتقد أن محمد ديبي تمكن من إيجاد مقاربة مع بعض القوى السياسية المعارضة من خلال اتفاقية الدوحة ، ومن بعد الحوار الوطني في أغسطس 2022 ، وواضح أن من أهم دوافع ومحددات الحوار الوطني الإبقاء على محمد ديبي رئيسا للفترة الانتقالية ، والسماح له بالترشح في الانتخابات المقبلة في مايو 2024 بعد اعتماد دستور جديد بعد الاستفتاء عليه في ديسمبر 2023 . وأرى أنه بعد الإعلان عن موعد الانتخابات الرئاسية في مايو المقبل دخلت تشاد في مرحلة صراع محتدم داخل أروقة الأسرة الحاكمة ، باعتبار أن معظم السياسيين انخرطوا وعملوا في الجبهة الوطنية من أجل الإنقاذ التي وصلت إلى الحكم بانقلاب عسكري ديسمبر 1990 ، مدعوما من نظام عمر البشير . حيث تولى يحيي ديلو مناصب حكومية رفيعة ، آخرها ممثل تشاد في المجموعة الاقتصادية لدول وسط إفريقيا ، لكن اتهامه لقيادات حكومية رفيعة بما فيهم زوجة الرئيس الراحل إدريس ديبي هند أثار حفيظة النظام الحاكم ، حيث أقيل بعد انتقاداته ، في تقديري هناك عوامل عديدة أسهمت بشكل أو بآخر في توتر الأوضاع الأمنية والسياسية في تشاد ، ومن أهمها طبيعية النظام السياسي حيث يقوم النظام الحاكم في تشاد على الابعاد الإثنية والقبلية ، وهو ما أتاح هوامش للمناورة والحراك من قبل بعض القيادات المعارضة للنظام من ذات الإثنية ، هذا الغطاء لم يتوفر للكثير من الشخصيات المعارضة الأخرى التي كان مصيرها السجن أو المنفى ، غياب بعض الفاعلين السياسيين عن المشهد السياسي في فترة الحوار الوطني وبعدها كالجبهة الوطنية من أجل التغيير ، وربما تعاود استئناف عملياته العسكرية بعد توسع رقعة الاضطرابات الداخلية في العاصمة انجمينا ، وإمكانية اتساعها لتشمل مناطق اخرى ، لا سيما في جنوب البلاد الذي يعاني التهميش السياسي طوال حقبة الجبهة الوطنية من أجل الإنقاذ و قبلها. الانتخابات الرئاسية المقبلة في مايو هي مسألة مصيرية بالنسبة إلى محمد إدريس ديبي وأنصاره من أجل المزيد من ترسيخ البعد القبلي في الحكم والبحث عن شرعية انتخابية ، بعيداً عن الشرعية العسكرية التي حصل عليها بعد وفاة والده ، باعتبار أن الفوز في الانتخابات المقبلة يؤطر لفترات طويلة من الحكم ، لاسيما وأنه شاب لم يتجاوز عمره 40 عاما . وأعتقد بان الابعاد الإقليمية والدولية حاضرة ، حيث أن تشاد تقع في موقع جعلها همزة وصل بين غرب أفريقيا ووسط افريقيا ، بين حزام من الدول التي تخضع للنفوذ الروسي كأفريقيا الوسطى والنيجر ومالي وبوركينا فاسو ، عطفاً عن وجود تيارات في تشاد تدعم وتفضل الحضور الروسي على الفرنسي ، لذا أتوقع تنافسا دوليا على القارة الأفريقية من القوى العظمى ، و سيتم الاعتراف بنتائج الانتخابات الرئاسية ما لم تؤثر على التوازنات في منطقة وسط افريقيا ، واغتيال يحيى ديلو يأتي في هذا السياق ، بأنه المعارض الوحيد الذي يمكن أن يربك الحسابات ويخلط الأوراق لرئيس المجلس الانتقالي وحلفائه داخلياً وخارجياً ، ويمكن القول بأن المشهد السياسي مهيأ لبداية حقبة جديدة لديبي الابن .

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