النمو الاقتصادي: السنغال تراهن على الهيدروكربونات لتحقيق 8٪ في 2025
تتجه التوقعات الاقتصادية في السنغال نحو تسجيل نمو لافت خلال سنة 2025، حيث يُرتقب أن يبلغ معدل نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي 8٪، بحسب أحدث تقديرات صادرة عن المديرية العامة للتخطيط والسياسات الاقتصادية (DPEE). ويأتي هذا التحسن بعد نمو قُدّر بـ6,1٪ سنة 2024.
ووفق التقرير الخاص بأداء الاقتصاد السنغالي في 2024 وآفاقه حتى 2026، فإن هذه الدينامية ستكون مدفوعة بالأساس بالقطاع الثانوي، المتوقع أن يسجل قفزة بنسبة 18,8٪ في 2025، بفضل الصعود القوي للأنشطة الاستخراجية، خصوصًا مع دخول مشاريع النفط والغاز مرحلة الإنتاج الكامل.
وتتوقع الـDPEE أن تشهد إنتاجية الهيدروكربونات قفزة قياسية بنسبة 113,3٪ خلال 2025، ما يعادل إنتاج 30,5 مليون برميل من النفط (من المرحلة الأولى لمشروعي سانغومار وGTA) إضافة إلى 30,2 وحدة تيرابريتيش من الغاز الطبيعي المسال. هذه النتائج ستساهم وحدها بـ3,8 نقطة في نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي. وبذلك سيمثل قطاع النفط والغاز نحو 50,8٪ من الأنشطة الاستخراجية و18,2٪ من القطاع الثانوي.
كما يتوقع التقرير انتعاش إنتاج الذهب بفضل استغلال منجم “ماسوا” الذي يُقدَّر احتياطه بـ2,6 مليون أونصة على مدى 12 عامًا. وفي الوقت نفسه، سيحقق القطاع الثانوي خارج الهيدروكربونات نموًا بـ4,3٪ سنة 2025 مقابل 2,9٪ في 2024، مدفوعًا بعدة صناعات أبرزها:
- تكرير النفط: زيادة متوقعة بـ11,8٪ بفضل تحديث مصفاة “الشركة الإفريقية للتكرير (SAR)” والشروع في استخدام الخام المحلي.
- الصناعات الغذائية: بعض الفروع ستشهد تباطؤًا، مثل تصنيع المواد الدهنية الغذائية الذي سيتراجع نموه من 18,1٪ في 2024 إلى 6,1٪ في 2025 رغم وفرة الإمدادات.
وبإطلاق المشاريع البترولية والغازية فعليًا إلى جانب انتعاش صناعات استراتيجية أخرى، يتوقع أن تكون سنة 2025 محطة مفصلية في مسار الاقتصاد السنغالي، تمهّد لمرحلة جديدة من التحول الهيكلي
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