النمو لعام 2025 نحو الانخفاض… لكن خطة الإنعاش الاقتصادي باقية
خفضت وزارة المالية السنغالية توقعاتها لنمو الاقتصاد الوطني لعام 2025 إلى 8.8٪، رغم بدء الإنتاج الفعلي للنفط والغاز الذي يُتوقع أن يشكل محركًا رئيسيًا للنشاط الاقتصادي. وتشير التقديرات إلى أن بعض القطاعات، مثل الصناعات الكيماوية والأغذية الزراعية، تشهد تباطؤًا نسبيًا، لكن هذه الدينامية تبقى ضرورية لتعويض الضغوط المالية المستمرة على الموازنة العامة.
وتُظهر المؤشرات الرسمية أن العجز المالي بلغ نحو 6.5٪ من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في عام 2024، وقد يتعمق إلى 7.82٪ في عام 2025، بينما يتراوح الدين العام بين 70 و75٪ من الناتج المحلي، أي ما يقارب 25.368 مليار فرنك إفريقي. كما سجلت محكمة الحسابات جملة من المخالفات في إدارة المالية العامة خلال الفترة 2019-2024، داعية إلى تعزيز الانضباط والشفافية في التسيير.
ورغم هذه الاختلالات، يعوّل الحكومة السنغالية على الاستراتيجية الوطنية للتنمية 2025-2029 لاستقرار الاقتصاد وتحفيز النمو. وتشمل الخطة إصلاحات ضريبية وجمركية تهدف إلى استعادة الهوامش المالية ودعم خطة الإنعاش الاقتصادي والاجتماعي (PRES)، مع السعي لتحقيق توازن بين الصرامة المالية وتحفيز القطاعات الإنتاجية.
وترى دوائر المراقبة الاقتصادية أن نجاح هذه التدابير سيعتمد على قدرة الدولة على تعبئة الموارد الداخلية وضبط النفقات وتنشيط الاستثمار الخاص، وهي شروط ضرورية لتصحيح المسار الماكرو-اقتصادي وتعزيز مرونة الاقتصاد السنغالي في مواجهة التحديات المقبلة.
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