
التحولات السياسية في السنغال: دراسة مقارنة بين الانتخابات الرئاسية والتشريعية من الإستقلال حتى 2024
أ. عثمان سيك
لقد نالت السنغال استقلالها عن فرنسا عام 1960م، مما جعلها دولة جمهورية تتبع النظام الرئاسي ، وتحترم المبادئ الديمقراطية في اختيار رئيس الجمهورية. ولهذا السبب، تُعد من الدول الأفريقية التي لم تشهد أي انقلاب منذ استقلالها حتى اليوم.
وشهدت السنغال عدة انتخابات في تاريخها السياسي، سواء كانت انتخابات رئاسية، أو تشريعية، أو محلية.
وتُعد الانتخابات التشريعية من أهم الانتخابات في السنغال، حيث يتم من خلالها اختيار أعضاء المجلس الوطني الذين يمثلون الشعب في السلطة التشريعية لمدة خمس سنوات.
ونظراً لأهمية الانتخابات التشريعية، تبرز الحاجة إلى دراسة تحليلية مقارنة للانتخابات البرلمانية التي شهدتها السنغال منذ الاستقلال إلى الآن. فلا يمكن دراسة وتحليل الانتخابات التشريعية لعام 2024م بشكل منطقي إلا بمقارنتها مع الانتخابات السابقة في البلاد، وهذا يبرز أهمية هذه الدراسة.
ومقارنة الانتخابات الرئاسية والتشريعية، من خلال معدل المشاركة لدى الشعب، قد لا يكون منطقيا، لأن الوضعيات ليست واحدة، ولكن يمكن تحليل القوة السياسية التي يحملها رجال السياسة خلال الانتخابات.
وفي عام 2000م: فاز الرئيس السابق عبد الله واد في الانتخابات الرئاسية ضد عبد جوف في الجولة الثانية بنسبة 58%. ثم نظمت الانتخابات التشريعية في 2001م، وحصل فيها واد على 45% فقط، ما يشير إلى خسارته نحو 9 نقاط خلال عام واحد.
وفي عام 2012م: فاز الرئيس ماكي سال في الانتخابات الرئاسية ضد عبد الله واد في الجولة الثانية بنسبة 65%. وفي الانتخابات التشريعية التي نظمت بعد بضعة أشهر، حصل على 53% فقط، ما يعكس خسارته لنحو 12 نقاط مقارنة بالانتخابات الرئاسية.
وفي عام 2024م: حقق الرئيس الحالي بشير جوماي جخار فاي إنجازًا فريدًا بفوزه في الانتخابات الرئاسية من الجولة الأولى بنسبة 54.28% في 24 مارس 2024م، ولأول المرة تفوز المعارضة الانتخابات الرئاسية في الجولة الأولى. وفي الانتخابات التشريعية التي أجريت في 17 نوفمبر 2024م، حصل على 54.97%، مما يعني زيادة في نسبة الأصوات مقارنة بالرئاسية.
تحليل النتائج:
تشير هذه الإحصائيات إلى أن الرئيس بشير جوماي جخار فاي حقق ما لم يتمكن أي رئيس سابق من تحقيقه، حيث لم يخسر دعم الناخبين بعد الانتخابات الرئاسية، بل زادت نسبة الأصوات لصالحه في الانتخابات التشريعية. ويعكس هذا الوعي المتزايد لدى الشعب السنغالي رغبة في كسر النمط السياسي التقليدي الذي كان يتسم بالخداع والصراع المصلحي.
واقع ومستقبل المعارضة:
يمكن تفسير النجاح الذي حققه مشروع “باستيف” بقيادة الرئيس عثمان سونكو بأنه نتيجة طبيعية للرؤية الوطنية التي تبناها الزعيم، والتي تمكنت من تجاوز العقبات والمخاطر التي واجهتها. فقد أثمرت هذه الرؤية دعمًا شعبيًا مستمرًا في كل من الانتخابات الرئاسية والتشريعية.
مع ذلك، يبدو أن المعارضة السياسية التقليدية في السنغال تفتقر إلى رؤية واضحة، إذ لا يزال خطابها يعتمد على العنف اللفظي والسياسي، ما يجعل مستقبلها غامضًا. إذا أرادت المعارضة استعادة ثقة الشعب، فإنها بحاجة إلى تغيير نهجها السياسي والتركيز على تقديم مشاريع وطنية بنّاءة مدعومة بالأدلة والبراهين.
وفي نهاية، يشير التحول السياسي الذي شهدته السنغال عام 2024م إلى بداية عهد جديد تقوده رؤية إصلاحية شاملة. هذا التحول قد يشكل تحديًا للمعارضة السياسية التقليدية، التي تحتاج إلى تطوير أساليبها لتحقيق التوازن في المجال السياسي .
باحث سنغالي
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